Next four quarters from the three books that exist today —
38 reps · 505 open opportunities · 441
renewal contracts · synthetic data
Bookings: capacity vs pipeline, with coverage
Coverage = raw pipeline ÷ capacity, against a
3.0× planning floor. 2027Q1 is the flag that matters:
thin coverage two quarters out is a pipeline-generation problem visible
before it becomes a bookings miss — the entire point of running
this weekly.
ARR build — next four quarters
Quarter
Beginning $M
New
Expansion
Churn
Ending $M
New sourced from
Gross ret (Q)
2026Q3
$46.0
+$4.9
+$0.6
−$0.7
$50.8
pipeline
89.9%
2026Q4
$50.8
+$4.1
+$0.6
−$0.9
$54.6
pipeline
84.6%
2027Q1
$54.6
+$7.1
+$0.7
−$0.8
$61.6
capacity
88.5%
2027Q2
$61.6
+$7.4
+$0.8
−$1.0
$68.7
capacity
84.1%
Near-in quarters source new business from stage-weighted
pipeline (evidence); far-out quarters from capacity × 82% historical
attainment (the pipe that will exist hasn't been generated yet). Mixing
the two on purpose, and saying so, beats pretending either is a forecast
on its own.