Monte Carlo Scenario Planner

10,000 simulations · 12 quarters · drivers drawn from distributions · synthetic company
Ending ARR P50
$116.4M
P10 $88.6M · P90 $154.9M
Ending cash P50
$73.7M
P10 $38.3M · P90 $118.3M
P(breach $20.0M floor)
1.9%
P(cash negative)
0.1%

Cash — P10 / P50 / P90 fan

$35M$80M$124MQ1Q3Q5Q7Q9Q11

ARR — P10 / P50 / P90 fan

$42M$102M$163MQ1Q3Q5Q7Q9Q11

Tornado — what actually drives ending cash

New-business growth rate
+0.79
Net revenue retention
+0.39
S&M spend level
-0.25
Growth persistence
+0.23
R&D + G&A level
-0.12
Gross margin
+0.11
Collections timing (DSO)
-0.07
Rank correlation of each input draw with ending cash across all 10,000 simulations. Argue about the top two assumptions; the rest is noise management.